Information from the abstract
Transport emissions are still rising in fast-motorising Chinese provinces. In Guangxi, the vehicle fleet grew 32% between 2020 and 2024, while the grid is already half non-fossil. A bottom-up model built on the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) and calibrated to official 2024 statistics compares four pathways to 2060, with the grid emission factor calculated from each scenario’s generating mix. In 2024, the sector consumed 567 PJ and emitted 41.9 Mt CO2. Under business as usual, emissions peak at 48.0 Mt around 2036 and remain at 37.4 Mt in 2060; the three policy pathways peak by 2027 and reach 21.5, 16.8, and 11.7 Mt in 2060 (42–69% below business as usual), cutting cumulative emissions by 24–45%. An order-independent Shapley decomposition attributes 50% of the 2060 abatement to vehicle electrification, 36% to power-sector decarbonisation, and 11% to modal shift. The two leading levers are complements and jointly deliver 86% of it (Monte Carlo range 84–88%), but their relative size is not settled: if charging draws disproportionately on thermal generation, the grid’s share exceeds that of electrification. Even the deepest, net-zero-aligned pathway leaves 11.7 Mt that must be balanced outside the sector.
Why this record is monitored
This record has an Impact Signal of 85/100 based on recency, source, collaboration, and bibliographic signals. It prioritizes monitoring and is not a judgment of research quality.
Related topics: Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure · Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies · Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
Thai researcher and institutional participation
Yongliang Luo · Worawat Sa-Ngiamvibool · Supannika Wattana · Buncha Wattana · Mahasarakham University
Data limitations
This page is a bibliographic record based on abstract-level information, not a full analysis or quality assessment. Verify the DOI and original article before citation.